WTC 2016 Predictions

I’ve been looking forward to forecasting the WTC results all year. But I also tried to script clean the WTC team rosters. I did not succeed, although I did make some progress. I used the troop-creator army data JSON files from the project GitHub account. Grabbing War Room or Conflict Chamber format was fine, but picking out player names was tricky. In addition, not everyone submitted their lists in War Room format, so there would need to be some manual intervention to get the complete lists. If this is worth picking up next year I would brute force pattern match on War Room entries, then manually sort through the unmatched elements. Validating lists would probably be an additional amount of effort.

Due to the lack of time, I hammered this analysis out on the night prior to the WTC. For this forecast I registered this year’s player names with ratings from 2013, 2014 and 2015. I also calculated the 35th percentile rating for each competing country. I selected this value arbitrarily. My rationale was that first timers are likely less experienced at high levels of play compared to previous players. This was then used to initialize new players to the WTC. For countries which have never entered before I assumed that there would be fewer top-level players to choose from, and so gave them a rating of 1800 (lower than my earlier initialization of 2200).

Since casters have certainly changed in power level since 2015, I decided to not use any home advantage, even for high rated casters such as Madrak 2 and Wormwood 1.

Based only on the rating of individual players and with new players weighted by the past performance of their countries teams:


Rank Team Score.Moment
1 1 Australia Koala 9.65
2 2 Australia Echidna 10.78
3 3 Poland Wisents 14.71
4 4 Scotland Irn 16.23
5 5 Finland Väinämöinen 16.31
6 6 USA Blue 18.22
7 7 Italy Michelangelo 18.60
8 8 Australia Wallaby 19.45
9 9 Sweden Nobel 21.26
10 10 Germany Black 21.31
11 11 Denmark Jotunheim 23.33
12 12 Canada Goose 24.13
13 13 England Knights 26.39
14 14 England Lions 27.24
15 15 USA White 28.59
16 16 Austria Schnitzel 30.63
17 17 England Roses 31.07
18 18 Sweden Bofors 32.34
19 19 Poland Storks 32.81
20 20 Sweden Dynamite 32.82
21 21 Belgium Prinzesschen 34.63
22 22 USA Red 34.88
23 23 Poland Marmots 34.96
24 24 Germany Gold 37.64
25 25 Canada Moose 39.51
26 26 Ireland Ceol 40.39
27 27 France Obelix 40.81
28 28 Austria Apfelstrudel 41.02
29 29 Germany Red 41.91
30 30 Italy Leonardo 45.88
31 31 Finland Joukahainen 47.26
32 32 France Asterix 49.92
33 33 Denmark Asgaard 50.73
34 34 Finland Ilmarinen 52.22
35 35 Netherlands VanGogh 52.76
36 36 Russian Bears 54.17
37 37 Spain Red 56.72
38 38 Portugal Primal 58.96
39 39 Norway Red 59.73
40 40 Scotland Bru 62.43
41 41 Ireland Craic 62.94
42 42 Netherlands Rembrandt 63.46
43 43 Wales Dant 64.05
44 44 Netherlands Vermeer 66.38
45 45 Greece Prime 67.60
46 46 Hungary 70.36
47 47 Middle East 72.36
48 48 Norway Blue 72.83
49 49 Wales Crafanc 73.40
50 50 Belgium Victorious 75.89
51 51 Greece Epic 76.04
52 52 Spain Rogue 76.21
53 53 Switzerland Cheese 76.34
54 54 Russian Wolves 78.98
55 55 Switzerland Chocolate 79.35
56 56 Czech Rep White 80.87
57 57 Latvia 81.19
58 58 Portugal Prime 82.08
59 59 Czech Rep Red 82.77
60 60 China Baizhan 87.82
61 61 Northern Ireland 88.16
62 62 China Egg Roll 88.30
63 63 Slovenia 94.01
64 64 UAE 96.21

 
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3 thoughts on “WTC 2016 Predictions

  1. Not bad at all given the actual results and all the randomness linked with some results!
    What would you do differently to improve accuracy next time ? Having more history on mk3 will certainly help 🙂
    Very interesting article! Cheers

    • Thanks Xavier. So I did about as well at forecasting the results as the average top level player, so that’s a start. I will be looking to include other data sources where they become published. For example, the Wisconsin Team Championship are publishing their data. I will be looking for some data sources that allow me to assess Mark 3 caster strength/home advantage also.

  2. Pingback: Scoring WTC Forecast Performance | analytical gaming

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