I’ve been looking forward to forecasting the WTC results all year. But I also tried to script clean the WTC team rosters. I did not succeed, although I did make some progress. I used the troop-creator army data JSON files from the project GitHub account. Grabbing War Room or Conflict Chamber format was fine, but picking out player names was tricky. In addition, not everyone submitted their lists in War Room format, so there would need to be some manual intervention to get the complete lists. If this is worth picking up next year I would brute force pattern match on War Room entries, then manually sort through the unmatched elements. Validating lists would probably be an additional amount of effort.
Due to the lack of time, I hammered this analysis out on the night prior to the WTC. For this forecast I registered this year’s player names with ratings from 2013, 2014 and 2015. I also calculated the 35th percentile rating for each competing country. I selected this value arbitrarily. My rationale was that first timers are likely less experienced at high levels of play compared to previous players. This was then used to initialize new players to the WTC. For countries which have never entered before I assumed that there would be fewer top-level players to choose from, and so gave them a rating of 1800 (lower than my earlier initialization of 2200).
Since casters have certainly changed in power level since 2015, I decided to not use any home advantage, even for high rated casters such as Madrak 2 and Wormwood 1.
Based only on the rating of individual players and with new players weighted by the past performance of their countries teams:
|56||56||Czech Rep White||80.87|
|59||59||Czech Rep Red||82.77|
|62||62||China Egg Roll||88.30|
You can follow all of the action here.