The Warmachine World Team Championship is this weekend! Here are some predictions for this year’s WTC based on last year’s data (code here). These results are only based on previous WTC player results and do not account for casters or theme forces, but does give an idea of how the teams may perform. I have started several analyses over the last year that will improve the prediction, but have not finished anything I’m completely ready to publish.
|Rank||Team||Moment of Rank Density|
|1||Australia Drop Bear||10.47|
|2||Australia Bin Chicken||12.36|
|19||Belgium Prinzesschen and the Fabulettes||30.64|
|28||Denmark Little Mermaids||45.28|
|32||The Netherlands Winmill||48.11|
|43||Belgium Victorious Secret||65.97|
|55||The Netherlands Deathclog||79.40|
|60||China Chinese Pizza||85.98|
The moment is centre of the density of the probability density distribution. For each team I have calculated a predicted rank, which shows where each team is likely to fall. The tooth effect seen in Australia Drop Bear’s density distribution shows that if they drop two rounds they will likely still end up at the top of the 4-2 bracket, and they have a 15% chance of going 6-0; not bad for a 64 team field.
I’m very grateful to David from Conflict Chamber who provided an event interface for players to register for the WTC through his web app. I manually cleaned the data last year to get predictions and it was very labour intensive. The interface provided a JSON file of the outputs which was great and saved me much pain.
My ratings do not yet include ratings for first time players in the WTC (almost half the field). I have been scraping records from Rick’s PGSwiss results page, but have not yet merged these with my player ratings. For example, Tim Banky is currently unitialised with a generic country level ranking of 2256, but his true player rating may be higher.
For comparison, Klaw’s list of top ten teams based on an ensemble of expert opinions is:
|1||Australia Drop Bear||48|
Borda count is a preference ranked voting system used in some political districts. It is an approach to select the least worst option for the largest group of voters. Klaw asked Sascha Maisel, Chris Davies, Bubba Dalton, Tom Guan, Ryan Evans, Konrad Sosnowski, Johan Dyrlind and Norbert Brunhuber to select teams that would go 5-1 or better. Assuming that their pick order is their predicted ranking, each team gets one point for every team ranked below them. In this case, every voter picked Australia Drop Bear as first place, so they are awarded 8 * 6 = 48 points. Only patriotic Johan Dyrlind voted for Sweden Svealand, and he placed them 7th, so zero following teams.
With Australia Drop Bear the clear favourites, will there be an upset? Results will be updated at http://www.wmh-wtc.com/ and rounds will be streamed by twitch.tv/page5de (Museonminis/Page5de) and twitch.tv/warroompl.